Claim Probability Calculator
Calculate the cumulative probability of making at least one insurance claim over multiple years, and the expected number of claims.
How to Use the Claim Probability Calculator
- Enter the annual claim probability percentage.
- Enter the number of years.
- Click Calculate to see cumulative probability and expected claims.
Casos de Uso
- •Understanding long-term insurance risk.
- •Deciding whether to purchase extended warranty coverage.
- •Educating clients on actuarial probability concepts.
- •Comparing claim likelihood across different insurance products.
Fórmula
Cumulative probability = (1 − (1 − p)^n) × 100%. Expected claims = p × n.
Perguntas Frequentes
Why does cumulative probability increase over time?
Each year adds an independent chance of claiming. The cumulative probability increases because you only need one claim to occur in any year.
What is a typical annual claim probability?
For home insurance it is about 5–10%, for car insurance about 3–7%, and for health insurance it varies widely by age and health.
How is expected claims calculated?
Expected claims = annual probability × number of years. If you have a 10% chance per year over 5 years, you expect 0.5 claims on average.