Fencing ELO Win Probability Calculator
Estimate the probability of winning a fencing bout from your FIE / ELO rating and your opponent's rating using the standard logistic model.
How to Use the Fencing ELO Win Probability Calculator
- Enter your FIE / ELO rating.
- Enter the opponent's rating.
- Click Calculate to see win and loss probability.
Use Cases
- •Seeding estimates before tournaments.
- •Bout analysis after competition.
- •Coaching ELO-based training loads.
Formula
P(win) = 1 / (1 + 10^((rating_opp − rating_me)/400)). After a bout winner_points += N, loser_points += N/2 (FIE schedule).
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does the 400 come from?
It is the ELO scale constant: a 400-point advantage means the favourite is expected to win 10 times as often as the underdog.
Does this apply to all weapons?
The logistic model is weapon-agnostic, but FIE uses different rating pools for foil, epee and sabre — compare ratings from the same pool.